Patriots-Jets Week 6 prediction: almost everyone takes New England

Almost everyone takes New England. The disagreement is about the number.

The bottom line: Almost every forecaster in this roundup picks the Patriots to beat the Jets at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. Only two take New York outright. New England opened as a 9.5-point favorite and is laying 7. The Jets have lost 18 of their last 20 games in Foxborough.

The picks

The bottom line: Two forecasters pick the Jets to win. Two models like them to cover without picking them to win.

Taking the Patriots:

• ESPN’s Mike Reiss picks Patriots 20, Jets 13, crediting the Jets’ defense and rookie David Bailey but saying New England has enough firepower.
• Eleven of the 12 on ESPN’s panel take the Patriots: Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Chris Fowler, Kalyn Kahler, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Jason Reid, Ben Solak, Lindsey Thiry and Seth Wickersham, plus Reiss.
• Four of the five NFL.com writers: Gennaro Filice at 32-17, Brooke Cersosimo at 28-21, Dan Parr at 28-20 and Bobby Kownack at 27-23.
• USA Today’s Adam Kaufman has it Patriots 28, Jets 17.
• The Dimers model, run over 10,000 simulations, lands on Patriots 26, Jets 19. Squawka has Patriots 24, Jets 17.

Taking the Jets: Dan Graziano of ESPN, and Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com at 24-23.

On the spread: Sports Illustrated lays the 7 with New England. The Rotoworld model recommends Jets +7 and leans Over 43. Covers takes Jets +7 and the Under 43. Dimers puts the Patriots at -7.5 with a 50.0% chance of covering and calls the total a coin flip.

The line has come down two and a half points

The bottom line: New England opened at -9.5 and is laying 7.

The details:

• Opening lines were Patriots -9.5, moneyline -440, total 42.5. The spread has settled around 7 to 7.5 with the total between 42 and 43.5.
• The moneyline is Patriots -360, Jets +285.
• The Under is 4-1 in Jets games this season and 3-2 in Patriots games. New York is 1-4 to the Over, New England 2-3.
• New York is 9-9-2 against the spread as an underdog under Aaron Glenn.
• The Jets are 2-18 straight up in their last 20 games in Foxborough.

New England’s offense has gone from worst to first

The bottom line: The Patriots averaged 12 points a game in Weeks 1 to 3, tied for the league low. Since Week 4 they lead the NFL at 37 a game.

The details:

• Maye has completed 71.4% of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions over the last six quarters, NFL.com’s Brooke Cersosimo noted.
• That turn is part quarterback and part play-caller: New England’s pre-snap motion rate went from 32nd in the league to 75.3% of snaps in Week 4.
• New England scored 29 at Buffalo and 45 against the Raiders in the two games since. Vrabel’s defense is allowing 18.8 points a game.
• The offensive line is patched. Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are on injured reserve, leaving Ben Brown at right guard, and rookie Caleb Lomu is second behind Campbell at left tackle on the Patriots depth chart.
• A.J. Brown was activated from injured reserve on Saturday and will be available, after returning to practice Wednesday. He is still listed as questionable. New England also elevated safety Elliott Davison and released running back Hassan Haskins from the practice squad.
• The Patriots did not activate tackle Marcus Bryant or elevate a running back, which Patriots.com read as a sign that Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson are trending toward playing.

The Jets just sacked a quarterback eight times

The bottom line: New York beat Cleveland in Week 5 with eight sacks, three of them from rookie David Bailey.

The details:

• The Jets are 2-3 and snapped a three-game losing streak in that win, which came without running back Breece Hall. Braelon Allen ran for 116 yards, and New York sacked Deshaun Watson eight times.
• Geno Smith has thrown six touchdowns and is one of four qualified quarterbacks without an interception this season. He ranks third in completion percentage at 69.4%.
• The Jets rank 19th in EPA per play and 14th in success rate on offense.
• Hall (quad), receiver Adonai Mitchell (finger), edge rusher Joseph Ossai (ankle) and guard Dylan Parham (knee) are all out for New York.
• New England will be without cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Karon Prunty. Christian Gonzalez returns with no game designation. Will Campbell, Marcus Bryant and TreVeyon Henderson are questionable. The full list is on our Patriots injury report.

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Our take

We took the Raiders and the points last week and watched New England win by 28, so take this with that in mind.

The case for the Jets is the pass rush and the number. Eight sacks on Deshaun Watson is real, and the Patriots are starting a right guard who began the year third on the chart, with rookie Caleb Lomu likely to draw the start. It’ll be interesting to see how the Jets use Bailey here, and he could do some damage, but with the Pats offense finally clicking, they should have ways to contain him.

Seven points is a lot to lay against a division opponent whose quarterback has not thrown an interception all year.

The case against them is everything else. The Jets are 2-18 in Foxborough over two decades of trying, they are scoring on a bottom-third offense, and New England has scored 29 and 45 in consecutive weeks against defenses better than this one. Vrabel’s side is giving up 18.8 a game.

Patriots 24, Jets 13. Lay the 7 and take the Under 43. The Under is 4-1 in Jets games, and both bets fit the same script: New England controls it, the Jets never get going, and nobody reaches 20.