Patriots-Bears Week 7 Preview: Chicago by a field goal

Two 4-2 teams on three days’ rest, and both New England guards are out

The bottom line: The Patriots play at Chicago on Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, four days after a 26-19 win over the Jets that cost them three offensive linemen. Both teams are 4-2. The Bears are 3-point favorites, and three of the four forecasters in this roundup take Chicago.

Both guards are out, and A.J. Brown is cleared

The bottom line: Guards Ben Brown (knee) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) were ruled out on Wednesday’s final injury report, filed by the team. A.J. Brown and Will Campbell were given no game designation and are available.

The details:

• Five Patriots are out: Ben Brown, Vera-Tucker and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III (neck), Channing Canada (hamstring) and Karon Prunty (hamstring).
• Four are questionable: tackle Morgan Moses (foot), Kevin Byard III (chest), Christian Elliss (chest) and Craig Woodson (shoulder). Moses was the only one of the four who practiced on a limited basis; the other three were full participants all three days.
• A.J. Brown was limited Monday and Tuesday and returned to full participation Wednesday. Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, Marcus Bryant, Drake Maye, Dre’Mont Jones, Andy Borregales and Joshua Farmer also carry no designation.
• Because this is a Thursday game the practice week ran Monday to Wednesday, and Monday’s report was an estimate after the Patriots held a walkthrough.
• Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are on injured reserve, and Romeo Doubs was placed on injured reserve Monday after leaving the Jets game. Andrew Rupcich and Jacob Rizy were signed to the practice squad the same day, as covered in Vrabel’s Monday news conference.
• For Chicago, running back Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) and linebacker Jack Sanborn (concussion) are out, linebacker T.J. Edwards (hamstring) is doubtful and defensive back Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (hip) is questionable. Left tackle Braxton Jones and safety Coby Bryant are on injured reserve, Pats Pulpit reported.
• Both teams’ full tables are on our Patriots injury report, and the lineup behind them is on the depth chart.

The Bears rush the passer, and New England just proved it can hold up

The bottom line: Chicago has 17 sacks through six games, tied for the fifth most in the NFL. New England did not allow one on Sunday.

The details:

• The Bears’ 30.2% pressure rate is also top five in the league through six weeks, per Pats Pulpit.
• Sunday was the first game this season the Patriots did not allow a sack, and the Jets had come in tied for fourth in the NFL with 17 of their own. New England last went two straight games without allowing a sack in 2018.
• CBS Sports’ John Breech, picking the Bears, wrote that “this is not the game where you want 60% of your offensive line to either be hobbling around or not playing.”
• Caleb Lomu, Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor finished Sunday’s game on the line. Lomu, the 28th overall pick in this year’s draft, has played extended snaps in back-to-back games.

Caleb Williams is back, and the Bears kept their defense off the field

The bottom line: Williams returned Sunday from a three-game hamstring absence and completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards in a 31-23 win at Atlanta.

The details:

• Chicago ran 73 plays to Atlanta’s 50 in that game. Vrabel pointed at exactly that split Monday: New England will “have to be great tacklers and do something to try to change the fact that their offense is out there for 73 snaps and their defense is out there for 50.”
• The Bears lead the NFL in rushing at 160.7 yards a game. The Patriots are eighth against the run, allowing 91.8.
• Chicago averages 36:01 in time of possession to New England’s 31:17.
• Ben Johnson is in his second season as head coach. Dennis Allen runs the defense, and Vrabel praised him Monday: “Players understand it. They play fast. They get off the field.”

Maye’s streak against New England’s giveaways

The bottom line: Maye has thrown at least three touchdown passes in three straight games. The Patriots are also 30th in the NFL in turnover differential at minus-6.

The details:

• A fourth straight three-touchdown game would make Maye the first Patriots quarterback to do it since Tom Brady in 2014. Brady is the only quarterback in NFL history with four such games in a row, and he did it twice.
• Maye threw six interceptions in the first three weeks and one in the three since, per CBS Sports.
• New England has 13 giveaways, 31st in the league, per Pats Pulpit. Vrabel was asked Monday about calling the turnovers embarrassing: “We’ll rep it more. We’ll put more time into it, I guess.”
• Breech noted that during the three-game winning streak the Patriots have trailed for about 10 of 180 minutes, and pointed to the 35-6 loss at Jacksonville in Week 3 as the counterexample.
• Elijah Ponder leads the team with 5½ sacks and has had at least half a sack in five straight games.

The number

The bottom line: Chicago is favored by 3 with a total of 50.5, and three of the four forecasters in this roundup take the Bears.

The details:

• Bears -3 (-102), Patriots +3 (-118), with the moneyline at Chicago -148 and New England +124, per VSIN’s DraftKings snapshot taken Tuesday.
• The total is the number that has moved. It opened at 47.5 and sits at 50.5, per ESPN, whose FPI model makes the Bears 2.4-point favorites with a 60% chance to win.
• SI’s Peter Dewey took the Bears on the moneyline: “I prefer their injury situation on a short week.”
• Breech picked Chicago 27-20. The Sports Geek also took the Bears, citing “Chicago’s stronger scoring average, productive rushing attack, and league-leading time of possession.”
• VSIN is the dissent and takes New England as a road underdog, on the view that the Patriots get the stop that matters: “I happen to like the road team here.” Under Vrabel the Patriots are 5-2 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread as road underdogs, VSIN noted.
• Both teams allow about the same: 18.8 points a game for New England, 19.8 for Chicago.

The history

• New England leads the regular season series 11-4 and has won four straight in Chicago. That .733 winning percentage is the Patriots’ best against any NFC opponent.
• The teams last met on Nov. 10, 2024, a 19-3 Patriots win at Chicago in which New England had nine sacks and held the Bears to 142 yards and 1 for 14 on third down.
• Chicago’s only postseason meeting with New England was Super Bowl XX, a 46-10 Bears win.
• This is the fourth time the Patriots have played two Thursday games in a season. They are 15-8 all-time on Thursdays.

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Our take

Everyone’s on Chicago, and so are we, but the injury report is the lazy reason. New England didn’t allow a sack on Sunday with Lomu, Rouse and Pryor finishing the game. The line is not the thing that loses this, at least not directly.

The giveaways, if they continue at the rate they have been, will doom the Pats against the Bears. Thirteen of them, 31st in the league, minus-6 on the year, against a team that ran 73 plays last week and averages 36 minutes of possession a game. Maye has been excellent for three weeks and he’s also been playing in front. Vrabel said Chicago’s defense gets off the field. New England’s offense has to hold the ball to keep Williams off it.

Bears 24, Patriots 20. Lay the 3 and take the Under 50.5.