Patriots-Raiders Week 5 prediction: the line keeps moving

Nearly everyone picks New England, but the line keeps moving the other way.

The bottom line: Almost every analyst in this roundup takes the Patriots to win at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, and several of them by a touchdown or more. The market disagrees: New England opened as an 8.5-point favorite and is laying 3.5. Six Patriots are out, four of them cornerbacks.

The picks

The bottom line: Only five forecasters here take Las Vegas, all of them on ESPN’s panel. Every NFL.com writer picked the Patriots.

Taking the Patriots:

• ESPN’s Mike Reiss picks Patriots 23, Raiders 17, writing that New England will try to do to Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer what it did to Dalton Kincaid, who finished with one catch for 7 yards.
• All five NFL.com writers take New England: Dan Parr at 28-26, Brooke Cersosimo at 26-23, Bobby Kownack at 24-21, Jeremy Bergman at 23-20 and Gennaro Filice at 20-17. Filice called the Patriots defense “the most established unit in this game.”
• CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco has it Patriots 28, Raiders 24, noting the long trip for Las Vegas off a division loss.
• USA Today’s Adam Kaufman takes Patriots 27, Raiders 23 and points out that Drake Maye is 14-0 straight up as a favorite of at least a field goal in his career.
• 98.5 The Sports Hub is the most lopsided, at Patriots 27, Raiders 13.
• numberFire’s model gives New England a 73.5% win probability.
• On ESPN’s panel, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Dan Graziano, Eric Moody, Jason Reid and Ben Solak take the Patriots.

Taking the Raiders: Chris Fowler, Kalyn Kahler, Pamela Maldonado, Lindsey Thiry and Seth Wickersham, all of ESPN. None of the five gave a score.

On the spread, it splits: Sports Illustrated’s Iain MacMillan and 98.5 both lay the 3.5 with New England. The Rotoworld model leans Raiders +3 and recommends the Under 45. Covers’ pick is Raiders +3.5, noting Las Vegas has covered in all four games this season, twice as a road underdog.

The line has come down five points

The bottom line: New England opened at -8.5 and is now -3.5, with the total around 45.

The details:

• Opening lines were Patriots -8.5, moneyline -395, total 44.5. As of 11 a.m. Thursday the Patriots were -3.5 with the total at 45.5.
• DraftKings had the moneyline at Patriots -192, Raiders +160. FanDuel had -198 and +166.
• The Raiders are 4-0 against the spread this season. The Patriots are 2-1-1.
• Las Vegas has covered in each of the last three meetings between these teams, and is 3-1 straight up and against the spread in the last four.
• New England is 1-3 to the Over this season; Las Vegas is 2-2.

Six Patriots are out, four of them cornerbacks

The bottom line: Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada were all ruled out Friday, along with receiver Mack Hollins and fullback Reggie Gilliam.

The details:

• “We got six guys out. We’re going to make some roster moves. We got to have 48 for the game,” Mike Vrabel said at his final news conference of the week, per Pats Pulpit. It is New England’s season high for players ruled out.
• Gonzalez has missed six consecutive practices and will miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. Davis did not practice all week with a neck injury after playing all 59 defensive snaps at Buffalo.
• Hollins leads an A.J. Brown-less passing game in targets, catches and yards. He suffered a non-contact calf injury in the second half at Buffalo and has not practiced since.
• Seven Patriots are questionable, including Christian Barmore, who returned to full participation Friday, Rhamondre Stevenson, Morgan Moses, Dre’Mont Jones, Christian Elliss, Charles Woods and Craig Woodson. Maye practiced in full all week and carries no designation.
• Las Vegas ruled out receivers Jalen Nailor and Dont’e Thornton and guard Trey Zuhn. Running back Ashton Jeanty is questionable after not practicing Friday.

The matchup: whoever holds onto the ball

The bottom line: The league leader in fumbles is playing the league leader in forced fumbles.

The details:

• Maye has five fumbles, the most in the NFL. The Raiders lead the league with 10 forced fumbles and have turned five of them into takeaways, 98.5 The Sports Hub noted. Three came against quarterbacks who held the ball too long.
• Quarterbacks facing Las Vegas have averaged 2.92 seconds to throw, the 10th-highest figure in the league. Kansas City fumbled once against the Raiders, recovered it and won.
• Kirk Cousins has thrown for 11 touchdowns against four interceptions and has multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. He went 31 of 52 for 365 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the 30-27 loss to Kansas City, his season high in passing yards.
• Edge rusher Maxx Crosby has two sacks through four games, 1.5 of them in Week 1, plus a forced fumble and a fumble recovery against New Orleans, per his game log.
• Bowers has 16 catches for 202 yards and two touchdowns in the two weeks since returning from injury, and 12 of those catches produced a first down. The Raiders target tight ends more than any team.
• New England scores 16.3 points a game, 30th in the league. Las Vegas scores 28.8, eighth.
• The Raiders run defense has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game and the second-most rushing yards per play. New England ran for 143 yards at Buffalo, 54 of them Maye’s.
• The three teams Las Vegas beat during its 3-0 start are a combined 1-8 this season once their games against the Raiders are removed, and no team in the current playoff picture has a lower strength of victory, per Pats Pulpit. Las Vegas then lost 30-27 at home to Kansas City.

---

Our take

The forecasters and the market are looking at two different games, and the market is looking at the right one.

Almost everyone here takes New England, several by a touchdown. OK, fine. The Patriots should win this. But four cornerbacks are out, and the guy coming to town - a resurgent Kirk Cousins - throws to the best tight end in football, who has 16 catches in two weeks. Charles Woods is questionable and he might be the best corner who dresses for the Pats.

The other side: Maye has five fumbles, more than anyone in the league. Las Vegas has forced 10, more than anyone in the league. Consider how inconsistent the Pats O-line has been, and then realize that Maxx Crosby is going to be on the other side. I expect the Raiders will move him around and he’ll be a menace. If Maye is running for his life all game, we could see some ugly turnovers.

That could very well end up being the difference in this game. With the Patriots scoring 16.3 a game, there’s not a lot of room for error. One or two bad turnovers could lead to a Pats loss here.

Patriots 20, Raiders 17. Take the Raiders and the 3.5, and take the Under 45.5.