Patriots-Dolphins Week 8 Preview: Brown questionable, Pats favored by seven

Patriots favored by seven in Miami, with A.J. Brown’s knee the week’s open question

The bottom line: The Patriots (4-3) visit the Dolphins (1-5) on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium as 7-point favorites, per DraftKings odds published by NBC Sports. A.J. Brown did not practice Thursday after a knee issue flared up, and New England is 18-43 all time when playing on the road against Miami.

The matchup and the number

The bottom line: New England was favored by 7 as of Thursday, and the total has come down two points since it opened. The Patriots sit second in the AFC East at 4-3; Miami is fourth at 1-5.

The details:

• Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 1, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on CBS.
• As of Thursday, DraftKings had the Patriots at -325 on the moneyline and Miami at +260, with the spread at Patriots -7.0, per NBC Sports. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet down to 43.5. Those are Thursday’s numbers and the lines can move before kickoff.
• NBC Sports’ model is leaning toward the Patriots at -7.0 and recommending the under, which it called the strongest play on the board. It is staying away from the moneyline.
• Six of the last 10 meetings have gone over, NBC Sports noted, though the average combined score over that span is 43.2 points.

The tale of the tape, from the Patriots’ own game release:

2026 regular season	New England	Miami
Record	4-3	1-5
Total offense	375.0 (7th)	293.5 (27th)
Points per game	22.8 (19th)	16.3 (30th)
Total defense	315.7 (10th)	337.7 (16th)
Points allowed	20.4 (9th)	26.2 (25th)
Sacks made	17	6
Turnover differential	-7 (31st)	-3 (21st)

Miami has the better turnover differential of the two. New England’s 14 giveaways rank 31st, per Pats Pulpit, which also has the Patriots 10th in scoring differential at plus-17 and the Dolphins 30th at minus-59.

Brown is questionable, and the call comes Saturday

The bottom line: New England listed three players as questionable for Sunday: A.J. Brown (knee, ankle), TreVeyon Henderson (illness) and Christian Elliss (chest), per Pats Pulpit’s Oliver Thomas. Brown missed both Thursday and Friday, and Mike Vrabel said the team will decide on the questionable players Saturday.

The details:

• Brown was not spotted at Thursday’s practice and is not practicing because of a knee issue that has flared up, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported, citing sources, adding that his status for Sunday is up in the air.
• Brown then missed Friday as well. Evan Lazar of the Patriots’ official site reported he was not spotted at Friday’s practice, and ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported Henderson was not practicing Friday either.
• Brown suffered a high ankle sprain in the season-opening loss to Seattle and missed four games before the Patriots activated him from injured reserve ahead of Week 6, NESN reported. He has played 101 of 122 offensive snaps since, with six receptions for 75 yards, per Pats Pulpit.
• Brown said Wednesday that the ankle is not fully healed. “Yeah, sometimes, you know, I see it, and sometimes, I’m pushing through,” he said via NFL.com. “But none of that stuff even matters. I’m out here, so I’m going.”
• The rest of the active-roster receivers are DeMario Douglas, Efton Chism III and Kyle Williams, with Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins on injured reserve, per Pats Pulpit.
• Henderson had not been listed on the report when the week began. He has 203 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards and one touchdown on 57 touches, and took a season-low three carries at Chicago.
• Christian Elliss is questionable with a chest injury despite practicing in full for the past two weeks. He leads the Patriots defense with 51 tackles through seven starts, with one sack and one forced fumble, per Pats Pulpit.
• Morgan Moses (foot), Ben Brown (knee) and DaQuan Jones (back) were limited Thursday. Moses has been limited with the foot for a second straight week.
• Cornerbacks Carlton Davis III, Channing Canada and Karon Prunty were full participants both days after each missed four games this season, Patriots on SI reported. “I’m happy to be back out here and be a full go,” Davis said ahead of Wednesday’s practice.

What Vrabel said Friday. On Brown: “His status is questionable, like some other players,” Vrabel told reporters Friday. “We’ll see how he comes in tomorrow and we’ll make a decision.” On how Brown got here: “Just like everything else when you come out of the game or a long week, practice on Monday and evaluate the player. Just wasn’t able to finish practice on Wednesday,” Vrabel said. “So we continue to treat him and we’ll see where he is tomorrow.” And on the group: “We’re really here focused on trying to get a win on the road in the division,” he said, “and we’ll make a decision on the guys that are questionable tomorrow.”

Two things still open. No Patriot was listed as out or doubtful, and Ben Brown, Morgan Moses and DaQuan Jones were limited both Wednesday and Thursday without landing among the three questionable. Miami had not filed its game statuses as of Friday afternoon, and the Dolphins’ status column on both teams’ official reports was still empty.

Miami is 1-5 and just won for the first time

The bottom line: The Dolphins beat the Jets 28-25 on the road on Oct. 25 for their first win of the season, which kept them from starting 0-6 and gave coach Jeff Hafley his first, per NBC Sports.

The details:

• Malik Willis completed 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns to rookie Caleb Douglas, ran for 37 yards and another score, and converted a game-clinching fourth-and-1 inside the final two minutes. Miami scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions and led 21-7 at halftime before a late Jets comeback.
• Ollie Gordon II ran for 103 yards and a touchdown, and Douglas’ 63-yard fourth-quarter catch-and-run provided the winning points.
• Miami is rebuilding, having brought in Hafley and Willis to replace Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa and made 13 draft picks this year, more than any other team, per Pats Pulpit.
• The run game is the strength. The Dolphins rank ninth at 4.6 yards per carry under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and Gordon, a 2025 sixth-round pick listed at 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, has forced 15 missed tackles on 72 attempts, 98.5 The Sports Hub reported citing PFF. Gordon steps into a bigger role with De’Von Achane dealing with an injury.
• That has kept Miami on schedule: 41.3 percent on third down, 10th in the league, and an average drive of 3:06, third longest.
• Explosive plays are the weakness. Miami has the third-fewest plays of 15 or more yards, with 30 in six games, per 98.5 The Sports Hub.
• The defense has not gotten off the field, allowing conversions on 52.1 percent of third downs, 31st, per Pats Pulpit.
• Miami has forced just five turnovers this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, per 98.5 The Sports Hub. Pats Pulpit’s table has the same five takeaways, ranked 29th.
• Opponents have thrown the fourth-most attempts against Miami (175) at the highest net yards per attempt (7.5) and the highest scoring percentage (49.1), per Pats Pulpit.

The series, and the trip

The bottom line: A Patriots win would be their third straight over Miami and would put them at 3-0 in the AFC East, after a 29-26 win at Buffalo on Oct. 4 and a 26-19 win against the Jets on Oct. 18, per the Patriots’ game preview.

The details:

• New England leads the home side of this series 39-21, including 18-6 at Gillette Stadium, but is 18-43 in Miami and 14-25 at Dolphin and Hard Rock stadiums. Miami leads the overall series 64 games to 57, including New England’s 2-1 edge in three playoff meetings.
• The Patriots swept the series last season with a 33-27 win at Miami on Sept. 14 and a 38-10 win at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 4, 2026. That was their 11th series sweep and first since 2016.
• They scored at least 30 points in both of those games. The Patriots have scored 30 or more in both meetings in a season six times: 1967, 1986, 2010, 2016, 2018 and 2025.
• This is the first of two meetings in 2026. The rematch closes the regular season at Gillette Stadium, and its date and time have not been announced.
• Miami’s roster includes former Patriots Joshua Uche, Tucker Addington, Jalen Reagor, Marcellas Dial Jr., Caedan Wallace and Amari Gainer. New England’s includes former Dolphins Mack Hollins, Julian Hill and K.J. Britt.

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Our take

Seven points says this one is routine. The injury report says otherwise: if Brown’s knee keeps him out, Drake Maye’s receivers are DeMario Douglas, Efton Chism III and Kyle Williams, with Doubs and Hollins on injured reserve. That’s the whole room.

After that it cuts both ways. New England has given the ball away 14 times, 31st in the league, and Miami keeps games alive by running at 4.6 a carry and holding it for 3:06 a drive. But the Dolphins have forced five turnovers all season, fourth-fewest. The one Patriots flaw that could lose this game is the one Miami has been worst at punishing.