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Patriots-Bills prediction: Gonzalez and Barmore are out

Every analyst and model in our Week 4 roundup picks Buffalo at Highmark Stadium, and all of them picked before Vrabel ruled out his best cornerback and a starting defensive tackle.

By The Pats Digest··Updated

Everyone picks Buffalo. The margin is where they split.

The bottom line: Not one analyst or model in this roundup picks the Patriots to win at Highmark Stadium. The argument is entirely about the margin, and it is a wide one: the projections here run from Bills 21.8, Patriots 21.1 to Bills 31, Patriots 17.

Laying the points with Buffalo:

  • Covers’ Dustin Saracini takes the Bills minus the 6.5 and the Under. “After watching the New England Patriots through three weeks, there’s no way I could muster the courage to invest my hard-earned money on them against the Buffalo Bills,” he wrote, calling Drake Maye “a complete tire fire.”
  • The Rotoworld model at NBC Sports recommends Bills -7 and leans Under 48.5. It is staying away from the moneyline.
  • Squawka’s model projects Bills 30, Patriots 16.
  • The Arizona Republic’s Jeremy Cluff has it Bills 31, Patriots 17. “New England’s defense will be chasing Josh Allen throughout this game,” he wrote.
  • ESPN gives Buffalo a 71% chance to win.

Taking the points with New England:

  • SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan takes Patriots +6.5. “It’s time to buy low on the New England Patriots,” he wrote in his Road to 272 column. “I wasn’t high on them coming into this season, but they’re not as bad as they’ve shown so far this season.” He pointed to New England ranking ninth in net yards per play and to Buffalo’s defense ranking 25th in opponent EPA per play.
  • 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Matt Dolloff has it Bills 33, Patriots 27, a score that covers the 6.5 and goes over the total. He is on both.
  • Sports Betting Dime’s formula is the closest read anywhere: Bills 21.8, Patriots 21.1.

On the total: Rotoworld and Covers both lean Under 48.5. Bookies.com’s Bill Speros is on the Under as well. Dolloff is the only voice here on the Over. Rotoworld’s reasoning is that Buffalo has thrown the ball 46.7% of the time, the fifth-lowest rate in the league, so “Buffalo is going to lean on the run, which shortens the game and limits possessions.”

The line has moved a full point toward Buffalo this week

The bottom line: Buffalo was a 6.5-point favorite through the weekend and is laying 7 as of Thursday. The total has held at 48.5 throughout.

The details:

  • As of Thursday the DraftKings line was Bills -7, with the moneyline New England +240 and Buffalo -298 and the total 48.5, per Rotoworld.
  • On Sept. 29 the number was Patriots +6.5 (-102), moneyline +270 and -325, total 48.5, per Sports Illustrated.
  • Covers and the Arizona Republic both had Buffalo -6.5 on Sept. 28, with New England listed at +260 on the moneyline.
  • Rotoworld attributed the move to money on Buffalo, describing the line as having gone from -3 to -7.
  • Rotoworld lists New England at 1-1-1 against the spread this season and Buffalo at 3-0, with the Patriots 0-3 to the Over and the Bills 2-1.
  • Over the last 10 meetings between the teams the Over is 7-3, SI noted. Covers counted the Under hitting in two of the last three.

Buffalo scores more than anyone. New England…not so much

The bottom line: The Bills lead the NFL at 33.7 points a game. The Patriots are last in the league in scoring, and last in the league at finishing drives.

New England’s problem is the last 20 yards, not the first 60:

  • The Patriots have scored 12 points a game, last in the NFL, and rank 22nd in total offense, Covers reported.
  • They have converted 16.7% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, the worst figure on either side of this matchup and last in the league, per Squawka and 98.5 The Sports Hub. Buffalo converts 75%.
  • “He and the Pats offense have largely been successful moving the ball down the field into opposing territory,” Dolloff wrote of Maye. “Their struggles have mainly been rooted in an inability to close out drives, stumbling at the finish line.”
  • Maye has thrown for 585 yards with one touchdown and six interceptions, a 58.6 passer rating, and has been sacked nine times. He went 14 of 25 for 199 yards with two interceptions and a 48.6 rating at Jacksonville.
  • New England owns a -5 turnover differential, and Maye leads the NFL in giveaways. The Patriots have scored three points off their three takeaways; Buffalo has scored 10 off theirs, Dolloff noted.
  • Maye has averaged -0.67 EPA per play on play-action passes and -1.64 against tight coverage, both worst in the league, Rotoworld reported.

Buffalo’s offense, and the one way in:

  • Josh Allen has 786 passing yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions at a 104.1 rating, plus six rushing touchdowns. He ranks fourth in EPA per drop-back and seventh in total QBR, Patriots.com’s Evan Lazar reported.
  • James Cook has 346 rushing yards on 58 carries with two touchdowns, including 154 yards at 6.4 a carry in Week 3. Tight end Dalton Kincaid leads all tight ends with 263 receiving yards.
  • The Bills turned the ball over five times against the Chargers in Week 3 and won 24-16 anyway. Allen threw two of those interceptions and posted a 54.0 rating. Buffalo held the Chargers, who are 0-3, to six points after the first quarter, Rotoworld reported, in what Covers called the Bills’ best defensive performance of the season.
  • New England’s defense allows 170 passing yards a game. Covers ranks the unit fifth in total defense.

The matchup: can the Patriots run it, and can they cover Kincaid?

The bottom line: Buffalo has rebuilt itself around the run under new head coach Joe Brady, and its new defense is the soft spot in a 3-0 team.

What Buffalo has become: The Bills fired Sean McDermott and promoted Brady, their offensive coordinator for three seasons. The offense now leads the NFL in two-tight-end sets at 56.5%, ranks third in under-center rate at 48.6% and sixth in run-action at 60.1%, uses motion on 76.1% of snaps and moves the pocket at the third-highest rate in the league. Brady hired Jim Leonhard as defensive coordinator and is converting the defense to a base 3-4.

Where New England can get at them:

  • Buffalo ranks 19th in defensive DVOA, 23rd in rush EPA allowed and 27th in rushing success rate allowed, Lazar reported. Leonhard’s defense plays zone on 85.5% of snaps.
  • “Can the Patriots run the ball against the Bills?” is the question SI’s Eva Geitheim picked out of this game. She noted Buffalo ranks 24th in opponent rushing success rate, per Sumer Sports.
  • Lazar’s read is the same: running outside or from spread formations “might get Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson loose,” which would then force Buffalo into the single-high looks Maye has rarely seen. Defenses have played split-safety coverage against Maye on 51.4% of drop-backs this season, the seventh-highest rate in the league.
  • New England’s defense ranks second in EPA per drop-back against man coverage, Lazar reported, and the Chargers had success against Allen playing cover one with a spy.

Three matchups Lazar flagged: right tackle Morgan Moses against edge rusher Greg Rousseau, who is second among edge defenders with 22 pressures; New England’s third-string right guard against Ed Oliver and Deone Walker, who is tied for second among defensive tackles with 14 pressures; and safeties Jaylen Reed and Craig Woodson against Kincaid.

A fan’s version of the same list: Die Hard Boston Sports Fans’ Thomas Murphy wants man coverage and no zone, with Christian Gonzalez on D.J. Moore and Marcus Jones on Kincaid. “Force Allen to make a mistake here,” he wrote. He also wants the penalties cleaned up, counting nine against New England last week. He wrote that on Sept. 30, before Gonzalez was ruled out.

New England will start its third right guard in three weeks

The bottom line: Mike Onwenu and his replacement, Greg Van Roten, are both on injured reserve, and Walter Rouse is trending toward the job.

  • Rouse replaced Van Roten in the Jacksonville game and allowed a sack and a quarterback hit, Sports Illustrated reported. After one practice it was trending toward him starting, though Mike Vrabel left the competition open.
  • “I’m sure he will help us; he’ll probably have to help us this week,” Vrabel said of Ben Brown on Monday. “I thought Walter had a few mistakes, but he competed and will have to improve.”
  • Brown, who has started games at center and left guard, is the second right guard in practice. “I feel comfortable at all interior three spots,” he told Patriots On SI. “Whatever’s asked of me, and whatever position that might be — whenever that is — I just want to be ready to do my best for the team.”
  • “I’m always going to be my harshest and worst critic,” Rouse said. “They brought me here for a reason. Right now, it’s guard. So that’s what I’m gonna do, and that’s what I’m doing.”
  • New England signed tackle Da’Metrius Weatherspoon to the practice squad on Sept. 30. The undrafted free agent spent the summer with Buffalo.

The final injury report: Vrabel ruled Gonzalez and Barmore out on Friday. Neither practiced all week. Seven more Patriots are questionable: Moses, Dre’Mont Jones, Christian Elliss, Reggie Gilliam, Eli Raridon, Craig Woodson and cornerback Channing Canada, who turned up on the report Thursday with a hamstring injury. Maye was a full participant all three days and carries no designation, per the official report. For Buffalo, defensive tackle T.J. Sanders is doubtful with an illness and cornerback Christian Benford, receiver Keon Coleman and running back Ray Davis are questionable. The full list for both teams is on our Patriots injury report, and the current lineup is on the Patriots depth chart.

The defense will be without its two best players

The bottom line: Vrabel ruled out Gonzalez and Barmore on Friday, both with shoulder injuries. Every pick in the roundup above was made before that.

  • Gonzalez appeared to hurt the shoulder making a tackle in the first quarter at Jacksonville and stayed in the game, Patriots.com’s Evan Lazar reported. He did not practice afterwards.
  • “That’s what the situation is, there’s nothing we can do about it,” Vrabel said after Friday’s practice, per ESPN’s Mike Reiss. “We can make sure that the guys that are playing are ready. That happens every week in the National Football League.”
  • Charles Woods is expected to take Gonzalez’s place, with Marcus Jones moving outside more and Karon Prunty available as depth, Vrabel said. Woods started for an injured Carlton Davis III in Week 2 and allowed four catches for 24 yards on seven targets, Lazar reported.
  • “Gonzo is a playmaker, for sure, so we know we’re going to miss him out there,” Davis said. “But we preach all the time ‘next guy up’ and Charles Woods has been playing good every time he has to step in for one of us.”
  • Cory Durden could absorb more of Barmore’s snaps, The Athletic reported. Without the two of them, “an already-thin pass rush takes a hit, and a secondary without much depth will be tested,” Chad Graff wrote.
  • Gonzalez signed the largest cornerback contract in league history before the season, NBC Sports Boston noted.

Also: kickoff, broadcast and venue

Kickoff is 1 p.m. Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, on CBS. It is the first AFC East game of the season for both teams. A Buffalo win would put the Bills three games clear of New England in the division.

Our take

Friday update: Gonzalez and Barmore are out, and that changes the pick. Allen should feast. Make it Bills 33, Patriots 17: lay the points, and take the over while you are there. New England is now too thin on both sides of the ball: a third-string right guard against Ed Oliver and Deone Walker on one side, and on the other a secondary without the highest-paid cornerback in football and a front without Barmore. Everything below this line was written before Friday’s injury report and is left as it stood.

A touchdown spread with a 48.5 total likely means Buffalo wins, and the game never opens up. That is probably what happens. We would still rather have the points.

Let’s start with what New England actually does well, because it keeps getting buried under Maye’s interception count. The defense allows 170 passing yards a game, ranks fifth in total defense and is second in the league in EPA per drop-back against man coverage. The Chargers just showed the template, playing cover one with a spy, and Buffalo turned the ball over five times that day, three of them Allen’s. The Bills still won 24-16 because the Chargers offense has been putrid: that 0-3 team managed six points after the first quarter. But the point still stands. Allen’s offense is terrifying and it scored 24 against a team that played it straight up.

Now the less fun part. The Patriots have scored 12 points a game and turned 16.7% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns, dead last. Those are not bad-luck numbers you talk yourself out of. Maye is the league’s giveaway leader and is worst in the NFL in EPA per play against tight coverage, which is exactly the coverage he will see on third down against the Bills.

So the whole thing hinges on one question, which Lazar and Geitheim both pointed out: can New England run the ball? Buffalo is 27th in rushing success rate allowed and 23rd in rush EPA allowed. That is the one unit on the Bills’ side that has been genuinely bad, and New England has two solid backs and a reason to protect its quarterback from throwing it 40 times. The counter is that the Patriots will start their third right guard of the season against Ed Oliver and Deone Walker, a recipe for disaster if your hope is a sturdy run game.

Call it Bills 23, Patriots 17. Take the 7 and the Under 48.5. Buffalo scored only 24 the last time somebody made it really earn the yards, and let’s hope for some positive developments from Maye and the offense (please - my heart cannot take a repeat of last week).

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