Patriots-Steelers prediction: everyone likes New England, nobody likes the number
No analyst or model in our Week 2 roundup picks Pittsburgh to win at Gillette Stadium, but three like the Steelers to cover a line that has climbed from -4.5 to -5.5.
Nobody picks Pittsburgh to win. Three pick Pittsburgh to cover.
The bottom line: Every analyst and model in this roundup that names a winner names New England. Where they part company is the 5.5 points.
Picking the Patriots:
- Boston.com’s Chad Finn has it Patriots 20, Steelers 13. “With trips to Jacksonville and Buffalo looming, the Patriots have got to have this one. If they keep their mistakes to a minimum this time, they’ll get it.”
- Sports Illustrated’s Peter Dewey has it Patriots 20, Steelers 16, crediting “Pittsburgh’s lack of offensive firepower with Rodgers at the end of his career,” while adding that he believes the Pittsburgh defense will “keep this closer than the spread suggests.”
- SI Betting senior editor Iain MacMillan is on the Patriots in his Road to 272 column: “I’m not concerned with A.J. Brown being out. The Patriots won many games without him last season, and they can win games without him this season. This team is built to beat up on inferior opponents, which is exactly what the Steelers are.”
- The Rotoworld model at NBC Sports recommends Patriots -5.5 and is staying away from the moneyline.
Taking the points with Pittsburgh:
- The SportsLine model at CBS Sports makes the Steelers one of its three best Week 2 underdogs, and Pittsburgh covers in the majority of its simulations. “With a win already under their belts, look for the Steelers to play a good game and keep this close – if not win outright,” wrote Nick Stellini.
- Covers’ Neil Parker takes Steelers +5.5: “With the Steelers sending out a capable, experienced, and versatile defense, I’m happy to take the points in what I forecast to be a low-scoring game.”
- Dewey, above, is on the Patriots to win but not to cover.
On the total: Rotoworld leans Under 41.5. Parker likes the Under and says he would play it “down to 40.5.” An earlier read pointed the other way: Dimers projected Patriots 24-19 and called the over its best bet, but that projection was published against a 42.5 total and a 4.5-point spread, before Pittsburgh had played a down.
The backdrop: Rotoworld notes the head-to-head history is low-scoring. In the last three meetings the Steelers are 1-2 straight up and 1-2 against the spread, with an average final score of Steelers 17.7, Patriots 17.3, a combined 35 points a game.
The line moved toward New England all week
The bottom line: The Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites and are now laying 5.5, while the total has come down from 42.5 to 41.5.
The details:
- As of Friday the DraftKings line was Patriots -5.5 (-110), moneyline New England -230 and Pittsburgh +190, with the total 41.5, per Sports Illustrated.
- The spread has “moved from Steelers +4.5 to 5.5,” CBS Sports reported. Rotoworld attributed the move to money on the home team.
- The total sat at 42.5 with the spread at -4.5 when MassLive surveyed the market in the days after the opener, before Pittsburgh had played.
- Covers listed the implied moneyline odds at Patriots 67%, Steelers 33%.
- Rotoworld lists Pittsburgh at 1-0 against the spread this season and New England at 0-0-1, a push, with both teams 0-1 to the over. SI described both as having covered their openers.
Why the number is low: Both offenses were poor in Week 1 and both defenses were not. New England scored 10 points in a 13-10 loss to Seattle in the Sept. 9 opener, with quarterback Drake Maye throwing three interceptions and finishing with 178 yards, one touchdown and a 54.9 passer rating. Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20-13, with Aaron Rodgers throwing for 221 yards and a touchdown without an interception. SI noted the Steelers allowed just 4.2 yards a play in that win. Covers charted Maye at 5.4 yards an attempt on a 6.5-yard average depth of target, how far downfield his throws traveled, and Rodgers at 5.5 yards an attempt, and cited Pro Football Focus ranking Pittsburgh’s pass rush first in the league after a four-sack opener.
Steelers rule out Porter; Patriots list Davis among three questionable
The bottom line: Pittsburgh ruled out cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and New England ruled out tackle Dametrious Crownover. Cornerback Carlton Davis III, who did not practice all week, is one of three Patriots listed questionable on Friday’s official report.
New England:
| Player | Status | Practice (Wed/Thu/Fri) |
|---|---|---|
| T Dametrious Crownover (knee) | Out | DNP / DNP / DNP |
| CB Carlton Davis III (neck) | Questionable | DNP / DNP / DNP |
| OL Ben Brown (knee) | Questionable | LP / LP / LP |
| LB Dre’Mont Jones (foot) | Questionable | LP / LP / LP |
| RB TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) | No status | FP / FP / FP |
| LB Robert Spillane (knee) | No status | LP / FP / FP |
Pittsburgh:
| Player | Status | Practice (Wed/Thu/Fri) |
|---|---|---|
| CB Joey Porter Jr. (NIR/conditioning/back) | Out | LP / LP / LP |
| WR Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) | Questionable | LP / DNP / DNP |
| OT Troy Fautanu (ankle) | Questionable | DNP / LP / FP |
- Pittsburgh held a walk-through Friday, so its participation figures are an estimation, the team noted.
- Henderson, who missed the opener, drew no game status after practicing in full all three days. “I’m ready to go,” he said. “Thank God I’m healed up now. I’m excited to be back out here with my teammates.”
- If Pittman sits, ESPN’s Michael Florio expects heavier volume for DK Metcalf and potential shadow coverage from Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Parker made the same read, noting Metcalf led the Steelers with a 27% target share in Week 1.
- Rookie tackle Max Iheanachor is preparing to play if Fautanu cannot, the Steelers said.
- With Henderson back, Parker expects New England to lean on the ground game to protect Maye from a Pittsburgh pass rush that recorded four sacks in Week 1.
A.J. Brown, still out: Brown, the offseason acquisition MassLive described as meant to give Maye a true No. 1 receiver, is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain suffered in the opener. MassLive reported he will miss a minimum of four games: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Buffalo and Las Vegas. The earliest return is the Week 6 visit from the Jets on Oct. 18. Finn put the absence at four to six weeks; ESPN reported it could reach six. Mack Hollins moves into Brown’s X-receiver role, with 2025 third-round pick Kyle Williams taking the vertical assignment, MassLive reported. See the updated Patriots depth chart for the current lineup.
What the Steelers expect anyway: “They’ll have a better plan. They have other good wide receivers, (Romeo) Doubs, then you also have Mack Hollins. They have a really good tight end in Hunter Henry,” Pittsburgh defensive tackle Cameron Heyward said. Maye said the answer is not his alone: “I wouldn’t say just because A.J.’s out that I’m trying to become this elevation. I think that takes everybody.”
Also: kickoff, broadcast and weather
Kickoff is 1 p.m. Sunday at Gillette Stadium, on CBS. Jim Nantz and J.J. Watt have the call, Finn noted. Watt’s brother, T.J., is coming off a two-sack, pick-six performance against Atlanta that earned the ninth Defensive Player of the Week award of his career. Covers’ forecast for Foxborough is cloudy and about 59 degrees, with a 65% chance of showers and southeasterly winds of 5 to 6 mph.
Our take
Two numbers moved in opposite directions this week. The spread climbed to -5.5. The total dropped to 41.5. That’s a market betting on a win New England grinds out rather than throws for, and grinding is how a favorite wins without covering.
Maye averaged 5.4 yards an attempt on a 6.5-yard average depth of target in the opener, and the receiver they brought in to fix exactly that is on injured reserve until at least Week 6. Parker expects the Patriots to lean on the run to keep Maye upright, and Henderson practiced in full all three days. This is a team built to win the game, not to bury anybody.
Take the Patriots. Leave the 5.5 alone. Patriots 20, Steelers 17.