Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction: the market likes Jacksonville, the forecasters do not
Three of four picks in our Week 3 roundup take New England or the points, while the model takes Jacksonville. Plus the matchup, the Wednesday injury report and how to watch.
How to watch
| Matchup | Patriots (1-1) at Jaguars (1-1) |
| Kickoff | Sunday, Sept. 27, 1 p.m. ET |
| Venue | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville |
| TV | CBS |
| Line | Jaguars by 2.5 to 3, total 45.5 |
Key players and matchups
The bottom line: New England has allowed fewer points than any team in the league and scored fewer than all but a handful. Jacksonville is the opposite shape, and the turnover column is where the two meet.
The tale of the tape, from the Patriots’ game release:
| 2026 season | New England | Jacksonville |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.0 (26th T) | 23.5 (15th) |
| Points allowed per game | 8.0 (1st) | 15.0 (6th T) |
| Total offense | 302.0 (18th) | 314.0 (15th) |
| Total defense | 260.0 (4th) | 332.0 (18th) |
| Pass offense | 179.5 (25th T) | 203.5 (18th T) |
| Pass defense | 166.0 (5th T) | 236.5 (22nd) |
| Sacks made | 6 | 5 |
| Turnover differential | -3 (29th) | +2 (5th T) |
The matchup that decides it: New England’s defense against Jacksonville’s offense is the strength-on-strength, but the game turns on the other half. The Patriots rank 26th in points scored and 29th in turnover differential; the Jaguars are fifth in that column. A defense allowing eight points a game does not need much, but it does need the offense to stop handing the ball over.
Jacksonville’s pass rush against a patched line: Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen start at the two defensive end spots for the Jaguars. They meet a New England line without Mike Onwenu, with Morgan Moses limited in practice on a foot injury, and with Greg Van Roten at right guard. New England has allowed six sacks in two games.
Where New England might find room: Jacksonville’s pass defense ranks 22nd and its defense is allowing 6.1 yards a play, 29th in the league, per Sports Illustrated. Squawka noted Jacksonville has not scored a touchdown through the air since Week 1.
Jacksonville players to watch: Parker Washington leads the Jaguars in receiving with 181 yards, ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. on 80, so the receiver New England has to account for first is not the one with the draft pedigree. Bhayshul Tuten has 131 of Jacksonville’s 221 rushing yards, which makes him the run game rather than a part of it. Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 434 yards in two games, and Jacksonville has not scored a touchdown through the air since Week 1, so the question is whether the yards start converting.
On defense, watch the two players who have already taken the ball away. Jourdan Lewis and Foyesade Oluokun have an interception apiece, and Drake Maye has thrown four. Travis Hunter is worth watching for a different reason: he is listed as the starting left cornerback and as the second receiver behind Thomas.
New England players to watch: Christian Elliss had 13 tackles against Pittsburgh, and no Patriot has reached double figures in consecutive games since Robert Spillane did it in September 2025. Hunter Henry became the fourth Patriots tight end past 3,000 receiving yards last week and needs 119 more to pass Russ Francis for third on that list. His career high is 115, so the record either waits or arrives on the best day he has had as a Patriot. Rhamondre Stevenson sits on 3,763 career rushing yards, 37 short of passing Curtis Martin for fourth in franchise history, and how quickly he gets there says something about whether he still has the backfield.
Familiar faces: Meyers spent 2019 to 2022 in New England and was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a thumb injury. Jaguars linebacker Jahlani Tavai was a Patriot from 2021 to 2025. Patriots offensive line coach Doug Marrone was Jacksonville’s head coach from 2017 to 2020.
The series: New England leads 12-3 overall and is 4-1 in the playoffs, including the 2017 AFC Championship Game. The teams last met in London in October 2024, a 32-16 Jacksonville win, and the Patriots’ last game in Jacksonville was a 31-20 loss in September 2018.
Two Patriots starters went to injured reserve before the week began
The bottom line: Right guard Mike Onwenu and safety Dell Pettus were both placed on injured reserve within 24 hours, Pats Pulpit reported, and four more players sat out Wednesday’s practice.
New England, Wednesday:
| Player | Injury | Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| LB Quintayvious Hutchins | Knee | DNP |
| DT DaQuan Jones | Not injury related / personal | DNP |
| LB Dre’Mont Jones | Shoulder | DNP |
| S Craig Woodson | Shoulder | DNP |
| T Dametrious Crownover | Knee | Limited |
| FB Reggie Gilliam | Knee | Limited |
| T Morgan Moses | Foot | Limited |
| TE Eli Raridon | Thigh | Limited |
| S Brenden Schooler | Back | Limited |
| CB Carlton Davis III | Neck | Full |
Jacksonville, Wednesday:
| Player | Injury | Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| RB LeQuint Allen Jr. | Hip | Limited |
| OL Robert Hainsey | Elbow, groin | Limited |
| DT DaVon Hamilton | Back | Limited |
| WR Jakobi Meyers | Thumb | Limited |
| OL Cole Van Lanen | Knee | Limited |
| CB Christian Braswell | Knee | Full |
- No Jacksonville player missed practice entirely.
- Dre’Mont Jones and Craig Woodson both left the Pittsburgh game with shoulder injuries. Jones was downgraded from questionable to out in the second quarter.
- Carlton Davis III, who did not practice at all last week and missed the Steelers game, was a full participant Wednesday.
- A.J. Brown remains on injured reserve. See the current Patriots depth chart for how the lineup stands.
This is the first report of the week, and it lists practice participation only. The official report carries no game statuses, so nothing above is a designation.
Three of four picks side with New England
The bottom line: Only the model has Jacksonville winning. Everyone else either takes the Patriots outright or takes the points.
Taking New England or the points:
- Sports Illustrated’s Peter Dewey picks Patriots +3: “As long as we can get a field goal with New England, I think that’s pretty favorable in what is a toss-up of a game.”
- Squawka projects a New England win, 20-16: “The Patriots defense is the best thing in this game by a distance, and Jacksonville have not scored a touchdown through the air since Week 1.”
- PredictEm’s Joe Jensen takes the Patriots getting the points, arguing Jacksonville “should struggle to score more than 17-20 points” against this defense.
Taking Jacksonville:
- The Dimers model, reported by MassLive, projects Jaguars 24-21 off 10,000 simulations, gives New England a 39.3% chance of winning and makes the Jaguars moneyline its best bet. It also has the Patriots covering 48.6% of the time and the total leaning under at 50.6%. It picks Jacksonville and prices the game close to a coin flip.
The line and why it is short
The bottom line: Jacksonville opened as a 2.5-point favorite and has been pushed to 3 at some books, with the total at 45.5 everywhere.
The details:
- FanDuel opened the game at Jaguars -2.5, with New England +126 and Jacksonville -148, Pats Pulpit reported Monday.
- By Tuesday, DraftKings had Jaguars -3, Patriots +140 and Jaguars -166, per Sports Illustrated. PredictEm still listed 2.5 on Wednesday, so the number depends on the book.
- The total has held at 45.5 across all of them.
- Pats Pulpit attributed the short price to geography rather than quality, noting home field is “typically worth around three points” and that the oddsmakers “predict a close game.”
- Against the spread this season, New England is 1-0-1 and Jacksonville 1-1. The under is 2-0 in Patriots games; Jaguars games have split. Liam Coen’s Jaguars are 2-2 against the spread after a loss since he took over in 2025.
Why the defense is carrying this: New England ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play and fourth in yards per play allowed, and has given up 16 points in two games. The offense ranks 26th in EPA per play and 29th in EPA per pass. Drake Maye has completed 67.3% of his passes for 386 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions. Jacksonville put up 34 points against Cleveland in Week 1, a performance Sports Illustrated described as dominating the Browns, then lost 20-13 at Denver in Week 2. Its defense is allowing 6.1 yards a play, 29th in the league.
Also: a streak in play
The Patriots scored on defense against Pittsburgh when Christian Barmore forced a fumble on a sack and Elijah Ponder returned it 19 yards. Patriots.com noted that if they score on defense again Sunday, it would be the first time they have done so in back-to-back weeks since the 2022 season, when Marcus Jones returned an interception 69 yards against Cincinnati on Dec. 24 and Kyle Dugger returned one 39 yards against Miami the following week.
Our take
Jacksonville is favored because the game is in Jacksonville. That’s most of the story.
Pats Pulpit put the number down to the venue: home field is worth about three points, and Jacksonville is favored by about three points. Subtract one from the other and the books are calling this even. The Dimers model agrees more than its own pick suggests, taking Jacksonville while still having New England cover 48.6% of the time.
The three forecasters leaning the other way are looking at what these teams have actually done on the field. New England has given up 16 points in two games, 8.0 a game, the fewest in the league, and ranks second in EPA per play on defense. Jacksonville hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 1. That’s the case for taking the Patriots or the points, and three of the four take one or the other.
So will we, and not comfortably. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 29th in yards per play allowed, so the room is there. The worry is at the other end. A 26th-ranked offense has to score enough to make the defense’s work count, and it goes on the road without A.J. Brown, without Mike Onwenu, and with Morgan Moses limited in practice on a foot injury. Four interceptions against one touchdown isn’t a passing game you trust to win a road game by itself.
It shouldn’t have to. Patriots 20, Jaguars 17.